Methodology & risk disclosure
Exactly how our ranges, risk scores and flags are calculated — and what they can't tell you.
Ranges
For each coin we measure realised volatility from daily log returns (90 days on coin pages; 7 days of hourly data in the explorer). Assuming returns are roughly log-normal with no drift, the P10 and P90 prices over a horizon of h days are the current price multiplied by e±1.2816·σ·√h. The median is today's price.
This is a deliberately simple, transparent baseline. Crypto returns have fat tails, so real moves outside the range happen more often than the maths suggests, especially in crashes.
Risk score
A 0–100 heuristic combining annualised volatility (40%), market-cap size (20%), distance from all-time high (20%), turnover (10%) and the number of red flags (10%). Higher means riskier. It is a comparison tool, not a rating.
Red flags
Unusual turnover (24h volume above 50% of market cap); abnormal move (24h change above three times typical daily volatility); sudden spike (1h rise above 6%); dilution risk (circulating supply below 35% of total supply); deep drawdown (more than 90% below all-time high). Flags can be false positives and are not evidence of wrongdoing.
Scorecard
For every day in the past year, we build a 30-day range using only the 90 days before it, then check whether the price 30 days later landed inside. We report the hit rate for every day, not selected examples. A calibrated P10–P90 range should contain the outcome about 80% of the time.
Data
Market data powered by CoinGecko API. Stablecoins are excluded from rankings. Data may be delayed, incomplete or inaccurate.
Risk disclosure
Chakra AI Ltd is not authorised or regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. CryptoChakra provides market data, statistical tools and educational content only. We do not provide investment advice, arrange trades or manage money, and nothing on this website is a recommendation or invitation to buy, sell or hold any cryptoasset.
Cryptoassets are high-risk and largely unregulated in the UK. Prices can fall sharply and you could lose all the money you invest. You are unlikely to be protected by the Financial Ombudsman Service or the Financial Services Compensation Scheme if something goes wrong. Ranges and model outputs are uncertain, and past or simulated performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Consider seeking independent financial advice.